1	Transition to Large Scale Nuclear Energy Supply by Dan Meneley, Engineer Emeritus AECL 27^thAnnual Conference of the Canadian Nuclear Society June 11-14, 2006
2	Background What Will Drive this Transition? THE PETROLEUM MARKET
3	Times are Changing Petroleum has been our mainstay for 100 years From now on, it will not be so Nuclear fission has been a marginal supplier But cannot any longer remain so North America has been energy-rich But we are not today, and will not be in the future
4	Long Term Oil Supply -Nobody Knows Source: International Energy Agency, Matthew Simmons (up to 2030) Wild Guess from 2030 to 2100 Presumed Conventional Oil Supply
5	Where do we Stand? World oil production is at or near its historical peak Most production capacity is controlled by national oil companies -- and is not part of a market economy China and India oil demands are increasing rapidly -- they expect to import mainly from OPEC, but the supply is limited Demand increases must be satisfied by new discoveries -- tar sands and oil shale might help satisfy the increasing demand Matthew Simmons: “We are In a Deep Hole”
6	What Can be Done? To fill “The Gap” we need to build > 6000 large nuclear units It is necessary to consider whether or not nuclear energy production can be increased in time to take over a large fraction of the load now carried by oil and gas Nuclear expansion? How about manufacturing capacity, safety, plant sites, fuel supply? World “demand” will certainly decrease, unless something fills it We can fill part of the oil gap, at least.
7	Basics Manufacturing capacity This can be dealt with -- the scale is not exceptionally large Safety Individual plant damage frequency must be very low Reliable plant life must be maximized Plant Siting Large, multi-unit sites will become the norm Land availability will be a problem Distribution of products from these sites will be difficult Island sites may be the answer Fuel Supply The outstanding question -- we now use >100 te/year of uranium per 1000 Mwe unit
8	Uranium -- A Small Part of Electricity Cost*
9	Quantities of Nuclear Fuel and Potential Energy Yield*
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13	Which Thermal Reactors Should We Build?
14	Integrated Fuel Cycles - Equilibrium Mix (Equal Energy Output from Each Unit)
15	Some Observations This is not the end of oil - just the end of cheap oil Power plants using thermal reactors must be built for several more years, even though uranium price is likely to rise Power plants using fast reactors can improve long-term economics, ease waste disposal, and simplify safeguards Fast reactors have one major weakness -- they need a very large fissile inventory for their first fuel loading Integrated systems of thermal and fast reactors can supply the world’s energy needs for many thousands of years The later we start, the harder it will be to make the transition
16	Finale CANDU is on the right track with its high conversion ratio. An integrated fuel cycle on each site can be balanced much more easily -- as fast reactors are finally introduced Fast reactors PUT AN END to the notion that nuclear energy is a short-term option. Fission fuel is inexhaustible Reprocessing will be needed - electro-refining? Rapid buildup of world capacity will lead to a temporary shortage of fissile isotopes -- uranium enrichment, electro-breeding, or fission-fusion hybrids? Oil will be cheap again only when we do not need it so badly